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The decline in the Cocoa Market continued during November and by the end of the month Cocoa had hit a 3 year low this was a trend seen in almost all Commodity Markets as a consequence of the Global economic worries. However as usual the prophets of doom have started by saying that there is likely to be an imminent upward correction like most things, if they say it for long enough they will eventually be right!

The real key to it is that the Cocoa fundamentals are very positive as per the latest Reuters report below:

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Wednesday increased its estimate for a global cocoa surplus in 2010/11 to 341,000 tonnes from 325,000 tonnes.  The ICCO, in a quarterly bulletin, did not provide a forecast for the current 2011/12 season although the international body has previously said it expects the market to be in balance or possibly see a small surplus. World production in 2010/11 was seen at 4.25 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 4.195 million and 17.0 percent higher than the prior season's 3.631 million.  The impact of higher expected production was partially offset by a upward revision to world grindings in 2010/11 to 3.867 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 3.828 million. Grindings are now seen 4.1 percent above the prior season's 3.716 million. 
Former Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo will appear before the International Criminal Court next Monday, the first former head of state to be tried by the ICC since its inception in 2002, officials said.  Gbagbo, 66, was flown from Ivory Coast to the Netherlands on Wednesday and transferred to a detention centre in The Hague. The ICC has charged Gbagbo with crimes against humanity, including murder and rape. About 3,000 people were killed and more than a million displaced in a four-month civil war in Ivory Coast after Gbagbo refused to cede power to Alassane Ouattara in an election last year.   At his first appearance before the court on Monday the judges would verify his identity and ensure he was properly informed of the charges against him, the ICC said in a statement late on Wednesday. Source: Reuters


Although prices remain very firm, again the fundamentals are positive, with India releasing 1m tonnes of export over December and January and the Thailand crop exceeding last year despite the recent widespread flooding.


Sterling fluctuated within quite a tight range during November the turmoil in the Financial market continues and the future of the Euro looks increasingly precarious.

Tony Mycock
2nd December 2011



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