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During September and with a background of World and European Economic negativity, most Commodity markets eased down. Cocoa especially dropped by over £200 per tonne in a steady decline over the month, reaching lows not seen for a couple of years. So this decline has gone from the height of the range I thought Cocoa would remain in, right down to the lowest level.

The new Cocoa Year started on the 1 st October and fundamentals all look positive with good weather in cocoa growing areas setting an optimistic mood – time will, of course, tell. However the latest is a report warning that due to Global Warming, within 20-50 years the African heartland of Cocoa will become too dry and threaten the future of chocolate. A nice bit of doom and gloom!



The bullish prices for Sugar continue, with the Industry talking up the firm prices and warning of a continuing tight situation. Personally I think that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors, as the Refiners are obviously keen to see the high prices continue. It would not surprise me to see sugar prices easing back in the first quarter of 2012 with availability proving not to be an issue. Again, time will tell on this….



Sterling improved during September exceeding €1.16/£1 by the month end. There is still a lot of volatility but with the Euro still lurching around and bad news from Greece continuing and today with Italy being downgraded, who knows where, when and even if, this will end?

Tony Mycock
5th October 2011


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