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Commodity and Currency




The Cocoa Market proved the point that if you say things for long enough, they will eventually come true. However a couple of months ago I ‘bottled out' and changed my opinion and said that I thought the high levels were here to stay – within a range of 2100-2300. So I am wrong (again) and the steadfast amongst us were proved right with a major correction which saw the cocoa market drop to 12 month lows at around 1920. This was due to the solid fundamentals that are all optimistic and positive at this time. However ‘one swallow does not a summer make' and as we come out of the summer silly season into the run up to the main crop harvest, we will get a better view as to where the market will settle.

The good news is that this lower market bodes well for a chocolate price decrease for the first half of 2011 – but there is a way to go as yet, so make the most of the graph while you can!


Dairy prices increased earlier this year but for the last couple of months flattened out. However with increasing demand, Milk Powder & Butter prices are looking to start to firm up again over the next 4-5 months.

Sugar remains in short supply and it looks like an increase of around 5% will be pushed through by the EU refiners this autumn. Organic prices are also very firm still and are likely to follow this level of increase.

Recent increases in the Vegetable Oils and Fats market have been substantial and sudden. This is due to bullish demand forecasts and external factors. Obviously the worldwide wheat shortage is having a knock on effect throughout the markets generally



During August, Sterling improved against the Euro to around 1.225, but by the end corrected back to opening levels 1.25-1.21. After strengthening against the Dollar during July, sterling fell back during the month to around the mid 1.50's.

Tony Mycock – 2.9.10


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